Pittsburgh Pirates: Is It Already Too Late For A Meaningful Rebound?

May 18, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage (54) talks to starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) during the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

If another disappointing Francisco Liriano start wasn’t enough to depress local baseball fans, Tuesday night’s 9-2 home loss to Baltimore unearthed a surprising fact: the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t been eight games below .500 at this point of the season since 2006.

After losing six of eight, the Pirates are 18-26, a full eight games behind their pace to this point last season. As poor as their current record is, it’s somewhat surprising that the 105-loss 2010 team had better results through 44 games, as did the 99-loss 2009 squad and Clint Hurdle‘s 90-defeat club three years ago.

But with all respect to the trivia-lovers out there – and I’m one of them – the really important numbers for the slumping Pirates are eight and 5 1/2. Those are their respective deficits in the National League Central and wild-card races with 118 games to play.

It’s still May, and we’re barely past the quarter pole of the MLB season, but Pittsburgh’s subordinate position in the playoff chase has Baseball Prospectus pinning their postseason probability at a mere 6.2 percent. (I liked that odds page a lot better last year.)

Part of the problem for the Pirates is that there are six teams between them and the NL’s second wild-card spot. In order to get back where they want to be, the Bucs have to vault the Mets (20-24), the Reds (20-24), the Padres (21-25), the Phillies (20-22), the Marlins (23-23) and the Dodgers (24-23). As of Wednesday morning, the Nationals and Cardinals are tied for the final wild card at 24-21.

None of those records inspire awe, which makes it all the more frustrating that the Pirates have blown 10 save opportunities thus far. Convert just six of those, and Pittsburgh is in playoff position.

That’s hindsight, though. Furthermore, all aspects of the Pirates’ game could be better, from the bullpen to starting pitching to offense and defense. They’ve been thoroughly underwhelming in all of the above, which might inspire hope that they can only go up from here.

We all know that’s not necessarily true, but if they don’t start piling up wins soon, the first eight weeks of the season could doom the 2014 edition of the Pirates to a quiet October.