Pittsburgh Pirates Back On The Upswing As Volatile Season Continues

Sep 5, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Starling Marte (6) high-fives third baseman Josh Harrison (5) after he scores in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Should we have expected anything else?

Every time the 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates have appeared to drop out of the playoff race – dating back to a dismal April – they have climbed their way back into contention.

The Bucs continued that trend over the weekend at a place that has been kind to them lately, Wrigley Field. Nearly 12 months after they memorably clinched a playoff berth on Chicago’s North Side, the Pirates put together a season-saving burst amidst the ivy-covered walls.

Pittsburgh outscored the Cubs 20-7 in winning all three games over the weekend, counteracting if not completely erasing a discouraging series in St. Louis. After getting the sweep, the Pirates (74-68) have edged ahead of stalling Atlanta (74-69) and plummeting Milwaukee (74-69) for the National League’s second wild-card position.

This hasn’t been the most scintillating playoff chase, but someone has to win it. After starting the season 10-18, the Pirates have been on the rebound, going .500 or better in every month since April. Their improvement was fairly steady through mid-August, when injuries to Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker aided and abetted a season-long seven-game losing streak.

Since ending the skid with a walk-off win over Atlanta on Aug. 20, the Pirates have won seven of nine, lost four straight (including the aforementioned sweep at the hands of the Cardinals) and won three in a row. With every twist and turn in the road, their playoff probabilities have fluctuated wildly.

As of Monday morning – according to FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus – the Pirates rate as about a 50-50 shot to earn a postseason spot for the second consecutive year. That’s a large jump from the 1-in-4 odds they had last Thursday, but we’ve reached the time of the season for drastic swings of fortune.

Pittsburgh’s soft schedule continues for another 10 days, with a four-game set in Philadelphia up next, followed by home series against the Cubs and Red Sox.

The Pirates have the slimmest of leads over the Brewers and Braves, but they have a better-than-average chance to be in playoff position by the time they face those two teams back-to-back Sept. 19-25. That’s the new goal: to be defending instead of chasing during those head-to-head series.

The Pirates already have as many losses now as they did last season, but the end result may be quite similar. Even if home-field advantage isn’t likely this time, they’re on track for a wild-card battle with 20 games to play.