MLB Playoffs: Pittsburgh Pirates Wild Card Game Predictions

By Zachary Weiss | Sep 30, 2014

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ second consecutive playoff berth is now official. Now PNC Park will be filled with fans wearing black, also for a second consecutive season, as the Pirates secured the top wild card spot and the right to host the National League wild card game.

San Francisco Giants [Madison Bumgarner 18-10, 2.98 ERA in regular season] @ Pittsburgh Pirates [Edinson Volquez 13-7, 3.04 ERA] 8:07 PM

This wildcard match-up determines who will face the Washington Nationals in the NLDS. Both of these pitchers had excellent second halves to their seasons. Bumgarner is 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA in the second half with 91 strikeouts and 11 walks. Edinson Volquez had a 5-1 second-half mark with 67 strikeouts. Bumgarner threw 217.1 innings on the season and Volquez 192.2.

Much will be made of the decision to start Volquez, however he has been healthy all season, has the most wins on the pitching staff and currently is the most dominant. Bumgarner has been a model of consistency, throwing over 200 innings in each of the past four seasons and double-digit wins.

There are still concerns with both pitchers though. Bumgarner pitched July 28 against the Pirates at AT&T Park and allowed five runs in four innings. Volquez did not pitch against the Giants this season, but from 2011-13 he had a 4.95 ERA over the course of eight games vs. San Francisco. Yes, Volquez is a different pitcher now, but this still is slightly alarming.

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In terms of overall offensive execution, this game is a push. Both teams are prone to breakout performances but statistics indicate the Pirates are the better team offensively The evidence is that the Pirates have scored 17 more runs, have a .04 higher batting average, a .19 margin on-base percentage and a .16 advantage in slugging percentage.

The pitching is more of a push. The Giants have a new closer now in Santiago Casilla, who replaced Sergio Romo after Romo put up a 4.26 ERA in May and 9.72 ERA in June. Casilla has 19 saves. Another Giants difference-maker in the bullpen is a former Pirates minor-leaguer Jean Machi. In 71 total appearances, Machi is 7-1 with a 2.58 ERA. I do find that the bullpens are fairly even.

These teams are pretty even to me, which makes this close. For me that favors the Pirates, who from September 21-23 won three straight one-run games. I trust the back end of the Pirates bullpen a bit more than the Giants, although this game will not be easy. The Pirates will get the timely hit late in the game to win.

Final score: Pirates 3, Giants 2

Here are some additional predictions from the City of Champions staff:

Matt Gajtka: If the crowd at PNC Park is anything like last year’s wild card game, this is going to be fun. The Giants will be missing Angel Pagan (back surgery), but they still have a lineup that can scare you with guys like Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval Hunter Pence looming. San Francisco has more playoff experience overall, even though the Bucs are starting to catch up.

The Pirates have the superior offense and should be able to score a few runs against the left-handed Bumgarner, with righties like Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and (hopefully) Russell Martin enjoying the platoon advantage. Volquez is probably the Pirates’ third-best starter, but his mechanics appear to be in sync. If he limits the walks, the Giants could be in for a long night.

Final score: Pirates 6, Giants 2

Larry Snyder: I believe that Edinson Volquez can get it done on the mound on Wednesday night. His career has been rejuvenated by pitching coach Ray Searage.

Volquez has allowed four earned runs in his last five home starts, and only five home runs in 17 starts and 106 innings at PNC Park.

Meanwhile, Marte went 1 for 4 on Sunday to extend his hitting streak to 13 games, a career-high. During the streak, the 6-foot-1, 185-pound left fielder is hitting .340 with three doubles, two home runs and six RBIs.

Final Score: Pirates 5, Giants 3

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