Pittsburgh Penguins face winter of uncertainty

Considering the recent news that Jordan Staal (knee injury) and James Neal (broken foot) have joined the Pittsburgh Penguins’ All-Star Injured List, the first reaction is incredulity, which is understandable.

How can there be more terrible health news for a club that has been missing the game’s best player for all but two weeks of the last calendar year, saw its other true superstar center blow out two ligaments in his knee, and had the season of burgeoning blueline force thrown into question?

But once you accept that Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, Staal and Neal – four of the Penguins’ best six players – aren’t likely to return in the near future, it isn’t that big of a leap to suggest that the Penguins may miss the playoffs for the first time since 2005-06.

A quick glance at the Eastern Conference standings affirms that creeping suspicion. In the midst of a four-game losing streak, Pittsburgh has a record of 21-15-4 for a total of 46 points, just one ahead of Winnipeg for the eighth and final postseason spot. While the Penguins’ plus-17 goal differential is better than all but Boston, Philadelphia and the Rangers in the East, much of that headway was made in the season’s opening two months. Since Crosby went back into a concussion-induced haze Dec. 3, Pittsburgh is 5-8-0.

With the team’s current downward trend and perilous injury situation in mind, it’s difficult to imagine this team moving back into a comfortable playoff position in the next month or so. Assuming all goes well with Neal and Staal in the rehab category, the Penguins are looking at being somewhere around No. 8 in the East by the middle of February or so when they hopefully get Nos. 18 and 11 back on the ice.

If that spot sounds familiar, it’s because Pittsburgh was in a similar predicament in the winter of 2009, prior to the hiring of Dan Bylsma as head coach and the club’s remarkable late-season run that led to a Stanley Cup title. The return of Sergei Gonchar from injury just before Bylsma came aboard was an underrated trigger point for the Pens’ turnaround, so it’s not unreasonable that the healing of Neal and Staal, both of whom are enjoying breakout offensive seasons, would provide a similar catalyst this time around.

But if the recovery of Staal and/or Neal becomes prolonged, or Crosby and/or Letang continue to battle ambiguity in their struggles with concussions, perhaps the most prudent thing to do would be to punt on the season and get an extended look at prospects like Eric Tangradi and Simon Despres.

The possibility remains for general manager Ray Shero to pull off a dramatic trade to provide a boost to his flagging team, but with the roster depleted he will be operating from a position of weakness. That disadvantage can lead to desperation, which oftentimes leads to poor decisions.

Even if Shero can conjure up a significant upgrade, it may not be enough to make Pittsburgh a legitimate championship contender. What has made the Penguins so tough to beat, especially in the playoffs, was their ability to throw two megawatt centers at opponents, then follow it up with a Selke-level pivot on the third line. If Crosby doesn’t come back, the Pens lose that edge.

Barring a goaltending miracle authored by Marc-Andre Fleury (who is certainly capable), the Penguins without Crosby would certainly not be the Eastern Conference favorite and would be pressed to get past the second round, if we’re being honest. If Letang stays out for several more weeks, they could be even odds to simply qualify for the postseason.

This may sound fatalistic, but perhaps the die has already been cast on this season. Don’t be surprised if the Penguins decide to write this winter off and plan for the next.