Pittsburgh Penguins still feeling Rob Scuderi’s absence

Scuderi’s greatest strength is his ability to control the play in the area directly around his own crease, keeping excellent body and stick position and keeping pucks out of danger areas, even against the toughest opponents. In the playoffs, good defensive teams allow fewer goals from in close (according to Super Shot Search), so controlling the play around your own goal is key, especially while killing penalties.

Case in point, in the playoffs the 2011-12 Kings’ average shot distance for goals against was 33.1 feet, but that distance was 41.3 feet when Scuderi was on the ice, meaning fewer goals were scored from in close when he was on the ice. The Kings’ regular season average goal shot distance of 19.9 feet (a 13.2-foot average distance per goal allowed in the playoffs) means the goal-crease defense tightens up significantly in the playoffs, usually. Between 2009-10 and 2011-12, successful playoff teams like the Kings, Chicago Blackhawks, Vancouver Canucks, Detroit Red Wings, and San Jose Sharks generally follow this model unless they flame out in a lopsided series.

May 24, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Douglas Murray (3) at the face-off circle against the Ottawa Senators during the second period in game five of the second round of the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the CONSOL Energy Center. The Pittsburgh Penguins won 6-2 to close out the series. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Penguins are that exception, as they allowed more goals from in close during the playoffs than in the regular season in 2010-11 and 2011-12, the last season for which playoff data is available, just like the Sharks did in 2011-12 when they were knocked out in the first round.  The Penguins followed the normal statistic when they won the Cup in 2008-09: goals scored against them were on average scored from farther away in the playoffs than during the regular season. In the 2008-09 regular season in general and in the playoffs on the penalty kill, Scuderi increased the average distance of goals scored against the Penguins, meaning he was important to the team’s goal-front defense.

This data is not meant to be conclusive, predictive, or all-inclusive, just indicative of the Penguins’ defensive problems since Scuderi left and also reflective of the impact Scuderi has on this statistic. In the 2012-13 regular season, Mark Eaton (1.9 feet) and Douglas Murray (3.9 feet) increased the distance of goals scored against the Penguins, but Murray’s impact was greater with the San Jose Sharks before his trade (5.6 feet). Brooks Orpik’s effect this season was just 1.5 feet. By contrast, when Kris Letang was on the ice, goals were scored on average three feet closer to the goal.

To conclude, Scuderi is an excellent defensive defenseman who is capable of stabilizing a team’s defense, especially around his own goal crease. He is also an excellent shot-blocker, he doesn’t take many penalties, and prioritizes body-positioning over physicality.  This stability has led teams he is on to have excellent postseason success, just not in the team’s first postseason after a five-plus-season absence.  His teams have won at least two playoff rounds in four seasons out of five with that caveat, and have a 13-2 series record overall.

Scuderi’s presence has a positive effect on a team’s penalty-killing and goals against average in the playoffs, as well as the average distance of goals scored against. It is possible Scuderi is reaching the end of his physical prime as his statistics have suffered this season even as his ice time has increased. He should continue to be a key defensive cog with whichever team signs him to a new contract this summer.