Pittsburgh Pirates will win the National League Central

Aug 8, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Josh Harrison (5) reacts as he runs home with the winning run against the Miami Marlins during the tenth inning at PNC Park. The Pittsburgh Pirates won 5-4 in ten innings. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Hours after the Pittsburgh Pirates completed a three-game sweep of the Marlins on Thursday, capping a 9-2 homestand at PNC Park, the Cardinals dropped the finale of their series against the Dodgers. Los Angeles took two out of three from St. Louis, exaggerating the increasing spread between the top two teams in the National League Central.

The first-place Pirates (70-44) now lead the Cardinals (66-48) by four games with 48 to play. Baseball Prospectus gives Pittsburgh a 64 percent chance to win the division; a 14-6 surge since the All-Star break has vaulted the Bucs past St. Louis, which has gone 8-12 over that same span.

As you may have figured out, that’s a six-game swing in three weeks. The Pirates’ four wins against the Cardinals during that time were critical to the Central turnaround, but even without those games Pittsburgh would still be leading the division.

The Bucs and Redbirds have nine games remaining against each other, starting with a three-game set in St. Louis next week, so this race is far from over. Nevertheless, a four-game lead at this time of the year is not easily overcome, especially with Cardinals’ pitching staff shorthanded due to injuries.

On the other side, the Pirates are optimistic about having lefty starter Wandy Rodriguez and late-inning hammer Jason Grilli back on the mound in September. It’s difficult to imagine the Bucs getting much better at preventing runs, but the re-addition of those two – plus maybe the rehabbing James McDonald – covers for fallback by the incumbents.

No matter how you add up the numbers, the Pirates have a distinct advantage the rest of the way. Baseball Prospectus says the Bucs are most likely to finish at 95-67, which would be a 16-win improvement over last season. If you’re feeling frisky, Pittsburgh needs a 30-18 finish to win 100 games for the first time since 1909.

But win totals don’t particularly matter as long as the Pirates take the division and bypass the one-game wild-card play-in. It would be a shame if Pittsburgh’s first taste of playoff baseball ends after nine innings. Plus, jumping straight to the best-of-five divisional round would seriously boost the Bucs’ chances at a deep October run.

It’s time to adjust your sights if you’re a Pirates fan. Forget a winning record or a mere playoff spot, we’re at the point where a division crown is not only realistic, but probable.