Pittsburgh Pirates Fans Should Be Rooting For The Cardinals This Week

Sep 3, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong (16) attempts to complete a double play as Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker (18) slides during the second inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

This is the final off-day for the Pittsburgh Pirates this regular season.

Starting Tuesday against the Boston Red Sox at PNC Park, the Bucs will play 13 consecutive days. During that span, their postseason fate will be decided.

This much we know.

After dropping well below 50 percent in terms of their playoff probability earlier this month, the Pirates are considered definitive favorites to play beyond Game No. 162. Even the rather bearish Baseball Prospectus projection model has Pittsburgh listed as a 73 percent likelihood to earn at least a wild card.

As far as the National League Central goes, the Cardinals’ weekend sweep of the Rockies increased their division lead over the Pirates to 3 1/2 games. After a few fleeting moments of hope last week, St. Louis has all but sealed another Central title.

With the Cardinals and Brewers set to square off this week at Busch Stadium, the Pirates have an opportunity to make up ground on both teams. But while it’s fun to dream about a dramatic rally to capture the division, wouldn’t it be better if St. Louis simply buries Milwaukee, whom Pittsburgh leads by 1 1/2 games for the final playoff spot?

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Under the system used by MLB from 1995 through 2011, this scenario would’ve been easy to figure out. A wild card spot used to be worth just as much as a division title, since every team that made the playoffs immediately gained entry to the best-of-five divisional round.

That’s not the case anymore, as a wild card is worth roughly half the value of a division title. Maybe it’s worth even less when considering the division winner’s ability to get extra rest and set its starting rotation.

Nevertheless, a wild card at least gives the Pirates a shot at the pennant, something they wouldn’t have had under the previous playoff format. If this were 2011, the Giants would be on the verge of locking up a trip to the NLDS. Now, they’ll have to survive a winner-take-all situation in order to get there.

Of course, if you’re the Pirates, a one-game playoff sounds just fine at this point.

That’s why the Cardinals rolling over the Brewers would be a more palatable result for Pittsburgh this week. Even if the Bucs can gain a single game on Milwaukee over the next three days, that would make this weekend’s looming showdown at PNC Park a difficult proposition for the visitors.

Either way, if the Pirates keep winning, they’ll pick up at least a game on someone. It’s tempting to think about the division, but even if Pittsburgh and Milwaukee both earn sweeps this week, St. Louis will still carry a lead into the weekend and the Brewers will still be a threat to knock the Bucs out altogether.

I don’t know about everyone else, but I’d prefer a sure shot at a wild card over an outside crack at the division and all the uncertainty that would bring.

Go Cardinals?