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Pirates Preview: Angels in the Outfield

By Mark Powell

Oct 4, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates outfielders Starling Marte (6) and Andrew McCutchen (center) and Gregory Polanco (right) celebrate in the outfield after defeating the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park. The Pirates won 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 4, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates outfielders Starling Marte (6) and Andrew McCutchen (center) and Gregory Polanco (right) celebrate in the outfield after defeating the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park. The Pirates won 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 11, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) rounds the bases on a game winning two run home run to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourteenth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 6-5 in fourteen innings. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 11, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) rounds the bases on a game winning two run home run to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourteenth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 6-5 in fourteen innings. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Andrew McCutchen

Please, don’t kill the messenger. I’m not suggesting that Cutch will see an extreme decline in his numbers this year, but last season’s analytics could be a cause for concern.

It doesn’t take a baseball expert to realize that his speed is declining—just look at his stolen base numbers. McCutchen’s batting average on balls in play also dropped to .339 last season (still really good), but that’s his lowest total since 2011. His base-running runs above average was also -1.1 in 2015, the first time it’s been negative in his entire career.

More from Andrew McCutchen

It’s not an outrageous statement to predict a slight decline in numbers in 2016, and while I believe his final statistics will look awfully attractive to the naked eye, it’ll be clear he’s not the five tool player he was during his MVP year.

Despite all of this, McCutchen has really evolved his plate discipline over the years. His 14.3% walk percentage last season was the highest of his career, and that’s great for the Pirates. Cutch continues to reach base at least 2/5 of the time and that’s wonderful for whoever is hitting behind him. Speaking of…

Next: Starling Marte