Pittsburgh Steelers still (barely) hanging on in AFC playoff race

Nov 28, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (84) reaches for a pass over Baltimore Ravens cornerback Corey Graham (24) during a NFL football game on Thanksgiving at M

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ 22-20 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night felt like a mortal blow to their playoff hopes.

It didn’t help, but the Steelers are far from dead in their pursuit of the AFC’s second wild card spot. At 5-7, they’ll probably have to win each of their last four games, but the bunched nature of the postseason chase ensured their Turkey Day stumble wasn’t a death knell.

To wit, although the Steelers trail the Ravens and Dolphins (both at 6-6) and the 5-7 Titans because of the head-to-head tiebreaker, they have four manageable games left on the schedule. The most important of those four, in more ways than one, is this Sunday’s home matchup against Miami.

If the Dolphins were to come into Heinz Field and win, they would jump two games ahead of the Steelers for the AFC’s final playoff berth. On the other hand, if Pittsburgh comes out on top, it would effectively hurdle Miami by virtue of the head-to-head victory. Additionally, a Steelers win would ensure they stay within a game of Baltimore leading into the final three weeks.

Time for some pessimism: since the Steelers and Ravens split their season series, conference record would break the tie between them should they finish the season in a dead heat. The best Pittsburgh can do in the AFC is 7-5, while Baltimore has a 6-4 conference record with two such games left to play.

Looking at the two teams’ remaining schedules, the Steelers probably have a slight edge over the Ravens. Pittsburgh has Miami, Cincinnati and Cleveland left at home, plus a Dec. 22 game at Green Bay that could be a tough task if Aaron Rodgers is able to return to the field.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s December slate reads as follows: vs. Minnesota, at Detroit, vs. New England, at Cincinnati. The Ravens will likely be underdogs in the final three games, for what it’s worth. The Steelers will have to hope for a 2-2 finish by Baltimore in order to keep the unfavorable conference tiebreaker out of it.

Then there’s the matter of the Titans, who topped the Steelers in the season opener. Tennessee has road games at Denver and Jacksonsville to complement home dates against the Cardinals and Texans. Two of those (JAX, HOU) are clearly winnable, so Pittsburgh will be pulling for the AFC-leading Broncos this weekend.

The two other teams with 5-7 records – San Diego and the Jets – are at a disadvantage because of various tiebreakers. The Chargers are 3-6 in the AFC, putting them squarely behind the Steelers’ 4-5 mark against conference opponents. Meanwhile, New York lost to Pittsburgh in Week 6.

It’s a bleak playoff picture for the Steelers, but it’s not over yet. Four de facto elimination games await, starting at 1 p.m. Sunday against the Dolphins.