Pitt Basketball: Has Panthers’ Slump Made Clemson Game Do-Or-Die?

Mar 3, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers head coach Jamie Dixon (right) reacts on the sidelines against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at the Petersen Events Center. The North Carolina State Wolfpack won 74-67. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Two weeks ago, I discussed whether Pitt basketball could overcome its late-season struggles in time for the NCAA Tournament.  That piece was written following a 75-71 loss to North Carolina.

So let’s see what has transpired since the UNC game. Coming off of that defeat, Pitt fell to 20-6 (8-5 ACC), which isn’t great, but could be much worse. The Panthers appeared to be traveling on a dangerous path, losing four out of their last six.

Pitt welcomed a hungry and desperate Florida State Seminoles squad (15-11, 6-8 ACC) to the Peterson Events Center. FSU was essentially on NCAA tourney life support, and Pitt could have put the nail in the coffin at home.

Instead, FSU came to Pitt’s home and left with a 71-66 victory (and made an astonishing 27 of 31 free throws). Pitt was left in shambles, now losing five of seven and falling towards the NCAA bubble.

Thankfully, it has been said that the NCAA Selection Committee does not weigh the end of a team’s season more than the start, but Pitt’s non-conference schedule won’t help that cause.

Regardless, maybe Pitt could right the ship on the road against a bad Boston College? Pitt pulled off a close 66-59 win over a BC team who had just lost by 27 to Miami. A win is a win, snapping a three-game losing skid.

Feeling a little better with a Pitt squad sitting at 21-7 (9-6 ACC), I still had some doubts on whether Pitt was out of its funk.

Pitt hasn’t beaten Notre Dame in its last five tries, so I didn’t have much confidence when Pitt traveled to Notre Dame. This may have been the worst Irish team in the past decade, as Notre Dame’s best player, Jerian Grant, was lost due to an academic issue.  This Irish team doesn’t have a force like Luke Harangody, nor the deadly 3-point shooters as in the past.

No matter what the case, Pitt battled with the Irish, eventually winning 85-81 in overtime, despite only making one basket in the final six minutes of regulation. Has anyone forgotten about the Dixon timeout as Lamar Patterson was about to drive to the basket for a game-winning layup?

Three of Pitt’s last four wins have come in OT against three bad ACC squads (Miami, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame). That isn’t going to impress the NCAA Selection Committee.

Defeating a mid-tier ACC squad like NC State (17-12, 7-9 ACC) couldn’t hurt Pitt’s resume. Plus, the Panthers already knocked off the Wolfpack on the road in its ACC opener.

Pitt surely can’t lose this one at home.

I was fortunate enough to get into the Oakland Zoo for this big game, and I was truly disappointed. The Zoo was emotional, the crowd was great, and Pitt jumped out to a 36-25 lead.

But the wheels fell off in the second half, and Pitt finished the game with a total of two offensive rebounds, a 41-point career-high from TJ Warren, a 74-67 loss, and a bunch of NCAA tourney doubt.

In a game with so much on the line, Pitt truly laid an egg, falling to 22-8 (10-7 ACC).

Mar 3, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack forward T.J. Warren (24) handles the ball as Pittsburgh Panthers guard James Robinson (right) defends during the second half at the Petersen Events Center. The North Carolina State Wolfpack won 74-67. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

So this is where we stand. Pitt’s final regular-season game of the season will be at Clemson (19-10, 10-7 ACC), a team that Pitt dismantled 76-43 before the slump began. Since Pitt blew out Clemson in its first meeting, nothing has come easy.

Is the Pitt-Clemson game a must win for the Panthers to feel better on Selection Sunday? Is this a do-or-die game?

I want to say yes, but it likely depends on many other squads fighting on the bubble. Of course, Pitt could make a run in the ACC tourney, and everyone would consider them a lock. A fifth-place 11-7 ACC record is certainly worthy of at least a No. 10 seed in the Big Dance.

A sixth- or seventh-place 10-8 ACC record (or 22-10 overall record after the ACC tourney) may be a ticket for the NIT.

With many bubble teams fighting for their tournament lives, Pitt seems to be regressing. I really haven’t seen emotion or passion from the Panthers as of late. While most teams improve over a season, Pitt seems to be moving in the wrong direction.

This has to fall on the coach. I was a huge fan of Dixon over the years, but I started to have my doubts when Khem Birch transferred to UNLV, and then Steven Adams left for the NBA draft after telling everyone that he wanted to play four years at Pitt.

Have the close losses gotten to Pitt’s psyche? I’m not sure if confidence has been shaken or that my team has just been a phony this season. Athletic director Steve Pederson and Dixon should be ashamed of their “weak” non-conference schedule, which may come back to leave Pitt out of the Big Dance in mid-March.

Pitt can’t seem to put up points nor close out a tight game against an above-average opponent. Pitt hasn’t beaten any of the top four ACC teams, and they are in jeopardy of falling to sixth or seventh place with a loss to Clemson. Putting up 91 against a Youngstown State team is no accomplishment, and it hasn’t prepared the Panthers for close battles in the ACC.

Some close losses may have been avoided had sophomore guard Durand Johnson not gotten hurt, but that is definitely not an excuse. True freshman Josh Newkirk has really stepped up, playing his best game of the season against NC State with 20 points and 5-for-5 shooting the 3. He definitely needs to be given more playing time, as well as the green light to shoot more often.

The same goes to freshman Jamel Artis who had a strong game against UNC.

Feb 8, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers guard Josh Newkirk (13) and guard James Robinson (0) celebrate as they leave the court after defeating the Virginia Tech Hokies in double overtime at the Petersen Events Center. Pittsburgh won 62-57 in double overtime. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

I also wish that redshirt freshman Chris Jones would have gotten more time than he has. He seems to have a nice shot from the limited playing time we’ve seen. Patterson has carried a ton of weight for Pitt, and Talib Zanna has had some great games, but Pitt needs more than that.

So where are the problems coming from?

To me, this team seems to be an identity of their head coach. The Panthers look to be second-guessing themselves, as well as hesitant on offense. We certainly didn’t see this in the weak non-conference nor in the Summer League, where players are given free reign.

Furthermore, Pitt just looks tired. James Robinson has a fantastic assist-to-turnover-ratio but hasn’t added enough offense to the Panthers, and players like Cameron Wright cannot afford to go scoreless in an important game.

Pitt doesn’t have an NBA-talented player who can take over a game. Patterson has really been good this season, but I’m not positive that he wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line. He didn’t challenge T.J. Warren as he put up 41 on Pitt.

Many Panthers fans will be nervous on Saturday afternoon. A loss could mean doom, whereas a win could mean an NCAA tournament berth. Hopefully, I can fill out a bracket with Pitt included in it.

Brett is a Pitt staff writer for City of Champions. Follow him on Twitter.