Pirates could have Cardinals right where they want them

As our Wayne Streator detailed for us on Monday, this week’s five-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals is one of playoff hope versus postseason experience, of new faces versus returning characters – at least for a national baseball audience.

Of course, Pirates followers know the full black and gold cast, but familiarity can exaggerate blemishes. Yes, the Bucs’ offense is 24th in terms of runs per game (3.86), but looking at pure production, Pittsburgh is just below MLB average in OPS (on-base plus slugging). In fact, the Pirates are exactly average when their bats are adjusted for ballpark by the OPS+ measure.

Jul 29, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Clint Barmes (12) hits an RBI double against the St. Louis Cardinals during the seventh inning at PNC Park. The Pittsburgh Pirates won 9-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pirates’ lack of success with runners in scoring position has been the primary reason for their scoring underachievement. Pittsburgh’s .225 batting average with RISP is last in the big leagues, while their .643 OPS in those situations is second from the bottom.

As I’ve written before, these struggles in high-leverage spots shouldn’t continue, even if they have persisted for nearly four full months. Perhaps this regression has already begun, as the Bucs went 7 for 21 (.333) with runners in scoring position in the final two games of this weekend’s series in Miami, then posted five hits in 13 RISP chances in Monday’s 9-2 victory over St. Louis.

On the other side of the field, the Cardinals have been ridiculously good at clearing ducks off the pond. Their .339 batting average and .877 OPS in RISP situations puts them far ahead of second-place Detroit in both categories. Despite plating only a pair of runs Monday in their fourth straight loss, the Cards still went 3 for 8 with RISP.

St. Louis has scored about a run more than the Pirates this year on a per-game basis, with nearly the entire difference explained by the Cardinals’ significant RISP advantage. If both teams regress toward the mean in that area, it should continue to be a tremendous race for the NL Central.

Pittsburgh and St. Louis have been similarly effective on the run-prevention side, with the Bucs holding an edge in runs allowed, earned-run average (ERA) and walks plus hits per innings pitched (WHIP). A couple Pirates pitchers, especially Jeff Locke, are due some fallback due to unusual success in stranding baserunners, but for the most part the Bucco pitching should be sustainable.

Colorful former Pirates broadcaster Bob Prince used to speak of “hidden vigorish” in baseball, referring to a trend that was “due” to end because of simple statistical probability. No matter how this week’s series against St. Louis pans out, it seems the Bucs have the vigorish on their side the rest of the way.