2014 NCAA Tournament: Eight Things To Consider When Finalizing Your Bracket
By Josh Svetz
Mar 16, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Florida Gators guard Scottie Wilbekin (5) drives the ball past Kentucky Wildcats guard/forward James Young (1) during the second half in the championship game for the SEC college basketball tournament at Georgia Dome. Florida defeated Kentucky 61-60. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
By now, you’ve watched every Bracketology show, listened to every expert and filled out your NCAA tournament bracket 75 different ways. SLOW DOWN.
The sad truth about the tournament is an expert will NEVER win you your bracket, but they can however help you shape that bracket. Furthermore, they provide some solid stats, but overall they can’t fill it out.
For example, I used to be a slave to the experts and every year I came up short. I was the guy who put Missouri in the final four in 2011. I was the guy who picked Vanderbilt to go to the final four. Yep, I put Gonzaga in my championship game last year…all because of experts.
This year I’ve made a conscious effort to lessen the impact of experts and do my own research.
I’m not here to tell you who wins, who loses, what upsets are going to happen. Frankly its impossible to predict. The tournament is a place where anything can happen, but there are some trends and some questionable teams to consider.
With that said, let me challenge your mind and give you a few things to consider as well as my Final Four.
1. Be careful of the team everyone is picking to win it: You know that team everyone picks? Guess what, they never win. Let’s go back in time.
2011: Louisville was loved as a team that could win it… they were beat by Morehead State.
2012: Missouri had four losses and were red hot going into the tournament… Norfolk State took them down.
2013: “Indiana and Gonzaga are hot, I like them to win”…. eh, Wichita State and Syracuse had something to say about that.
Don’t misunderstand me. Kentucky (2012) and Louisville (2013) were Vegas favorites to win it all and they did. However, there isn’t a team in this tournament that’s close to their talent. This year, everyone loves Michigan State. Almost every expert has MSU as their champion. I’m not saying the Spartans are going down to Delaware, but I’m not putting them in my Final Four.
2. One No. 1 seed always disappoints: This is true almost every year. In 2011 it was Pitt, 2012 it was Michigan State, 2013 it was Gonzaga.
Basically there is always one No. 1 seed that doesn’t breach the Elite Eight or even the Sweet Sixteen. This year, it’s either Arizona or Wichita State. I’m going with Arizona because of their struggles in shooting the basketball and a possible match up with Oklahoma State.
Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State) is one of the best players in the country and Lebryan Nash has improved over time. Arizona doesn’t have Brandon Ashley and couldn’t beat another team with a star in UCLA very recently. Even if Arizona gets by Smart’s team, I don’t think they come out of the West.
I know many people are picking Kentucky over Wichita State, that’s too easy. I actually look at what Wichita State did this year and last year and I believe they make it to the Sweet Sixteen at the least. Arizona however just seems like that team that will disappoint everyone. Don’t be the one disappointed.
3. Go chalk in the Midwest region for your sweet sixteen: The Midwest is by far the toughest region in this year’s tournament, with undefeated Wichita State, Jabari Parker-led Duke and the tournament winner and runner-up from last year in Louisville and Michigan, this region is a gauntlet.
I love N.C. State, I love Ty Warren, I watched him Tuesday night and that kid can play. I can see N.C. State beating Saint Louis, but no further. The Midwest Sweet Sixteen is going to go 1, 2, 3, 4. That’s not the region a major upset will happen.
4. Embiid giveth and taketh away: If I knew Joel Embiid would be 100 percent healthy, I’d have Kansas as my champion, no questions asked. However, he may not be back until next weekend and even if he comes back, he may not produce to his potential.
I’m in many bracket polls with an option of multiple bracket entries. My advice: make a “Joel Embiid” bracket, that way if he does come back healthy and dominates everyone, you won’t be having blind rage fits over Kansas knocking off your Final Four or championship team.
5. There is always one 4 vs. 13 seed upset, but its harder to predict than you think: The last few years a trend has developed, the 4 vs. 13 seed upset. Experts have keyed in on this trend, but have rarely correctly predicted it.
2011: The experts liked Oakland over Texas and mostly Belmont over Wisconsin, but neither came true. Instead, the team with the funny name, Morehead State, beat Rick Pitino’s Louisville Cardinals.
2012: Montana was assured to take down Wisconsin…nope. I heard things like,”Louisville got beat as a four-seed last year, Davidson had a good year, they can shoot, they will beat Louisville,” wrong. It ended up being Ohio, taking down Michigan.
2013: The buzz was “Nate Wolters (South Dakota State) will shock Michigan.” Michigan dismantled them. Syracuse was considered weak, Montana was given a shot. That game was a laugh fest, ‘Cuse beat them by 50! Instead, it was that team that beat Boise State in the First Four, La Salle, who shocked Kansas State. My point being, the 13 seed the experts pick don’t win.
This year, they haven’t picked one. I’m not bold enough to say No. 4 seeds Louisville and Michigan State are going down, but I’ll give New Mexico State a chance.
However, it seems too easy to pick them. I’m going with the team no one has given a chance: Tulsa. Tulsa is led by former Kansas forward Daniel Manning as head coach. Yes, that Danny Manning, the Danny Manning who led sixth-seeded Kansas on a miracle run to the championship in 1988 beating the heavily-favored Oklahoma Sooners to win the NCAA title.
Getting back to Tulsa, since February 8, Tulsa has not lost. Granted they didn’t play any tournament worthy teams, but a winning streak is a positive. Also, it just so happens to be the anniversary of 12-seed Tulsa upsetting five-seed UCLA in the first round of the NCAA tournament. It seems like it’s set up for Tulsa to be that 13-seed that shocks everyone.
6. Don’t bank on anyone lower than a fifth seed winning it all: I recognize that teams like Kansas, N.C. State and Villanova have beaten the odds in the past, but it just doesn’t happen that often.
7. The West is impossible to predict: I hate this region, I hate that not a single team looks like a Final Four candidate, that’s why I’m just throwing darts at a dartboard in this region. I could see Creighton, Arizona, Wisconsin, Baylor, Oregon and Oklahoma State all going to the final four. I don’t want to pick that region at all. My advice is to just go by your gut on that region, because it’s a mess.
8. There is no Florida Gulf Coast or any 15-seed studs in this tournament. I may be wrong, but when I look back at Duke, Missouri and Georgetown, we should have seen their losses coming. Those three schools all had huge deficiencies in various areas.
This year, not the case. Michigan, Kansas, Villanova and Wisconsin are very good programs who should have no trouble avoiding the Florida Gulf Coasts’ of the world.
Now here are my Final Four picks:
Florida
Iowa State
Creighton
Michigan
I’m not telling you who to pick. I’m not giving you all my picks either. I just want you to consider these factors and challenge yourself to think outside the box.
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What do you have to say about this tournament? Comment below so we can discuss.